Macro Sentiment Receded, the Most-Traded SHFE Tin Contract Experienced Wide Fluctuations and Declined Today, Spot Market Slightly Recovered [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On January 30, the most-traded SHFE tin sn2603 contract showed a trend of declining with reduced positions, once falling to the key 400,000 yuan/mt level during the session, and closed at 417,220 yuan/mt in the morning session, down 6.41% from the previous settlement price. On the LME, three-month LME tin continued its fluctuating trend in the doldrums, temporarily quoted at $53,000/mt, down 2.75%. After the previous consecutive gains, as macro sentiment cooled and funds took phased profits, futures prices pulled back rapidly today.

Fundamentally, although Indonesia's RKAB policy remained not fully clear, JFX trading activity became more active, easing market concerns over a supply gap in Indonesia during January-February. Demand side remained under pressure; although the price decline released some rigid procurement demand and spot transactions recovered slightly, overall prices stayed at high levels, downstream restocking willingness before the holiday remained weak, with most participants maintaining a cautious wait-and-see attitude. Coupled with cost pressure on end-use industries from the overall rise in the metal sector, the transmission of demand upward was slow, providing limited actual support to the spot market.

Overall, market sentiment gradually shifted from macro dominance to a game between macro factors and fundamentals. Going forward, it is necessary to continuously monitor changes in macro events before the holiday, as well as the progress of supply recovery in Indonesia and global inventory changes. Tin prices are expected to maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term, with the range center gradually shifting downward; it is advisable to respond rationally to fluctuations and cautiously control risks.